In June 2025, small businesses experienced a slight decline in activity as the Fiserv Small Business Index dropped two points to a seasonally adjusted 148. While year-over-year sales remained strong, rising 4.4%, a 1.4% decline month over month signals that consumer spending may be tapering off.
This softening in momentum is echoed in foot traffic trends, which rose 2.2% over the past year but slipped 2.0% from May, indicating a reduction in in-person visits. Interestingly, average ticket sizes increased, both year over year (+2.1%) and month over month (+0.6%), especially in essential goods categories. This suggests that while fewer purchases may be occurring, consumers are spending slightly more per transaction—primarily on non-discretionary items. Economic uncertainty continues to drive this more cautious, essentials-focused behavior.
Services Continue to Outpace Goods: Strength in Professional and Food Sectors
The trend of services outperforming goods continued into June, reinforcing a broader shift in small business growth patterns for 2025. Compared to the same month last year, service-based businesses saw a robust 5.2% increase in sales, whereas goods-based businesses grew by a more modest 2.3%. Notably, Food Manufacturing (+11.7%) and Professional Services (+9.0%) were standout performers among service sectors.
However, when compared to May 2025, both sectors saw a decline—services fell by 1.2%, while goods dropped by 2.0%. Even so, several service industries showed resilience and growth on a monthly basis, including Administrative and Support Services, Education, Hospitals, and Rental and Leasing Services, highlighting pockets of ongoing demand.
Restaurants: Declining Foot Traffic Dampens Sales Momentum
Small business restaurants are facing headwinds. While year-over-year sales grew slightly by 0.4%, month-over-month sales dropped 2.6%, reflecting ongoing challenges in attracting foot traffic. This slowdown was particularly noticeable given that May had already experienced a 5.6% drop from April. The June decline in visits (-2.5% MoM) continued this downward trajectory. Despite relatively flat average ticket sizes (-0.1%), the lack of customers entering restaurants directly impacted sales. This suggests that consumers are dining out less frequently, likely cutting back on discretionary outings amid broader financial caution.
Retail: Long-Term Gains Overshadow June Pullback
Retail small businesses showed mixed results in June. While year-over-year sales remained healthy at +1.7%, there was a month-over-month decline of 1.7%. A similar story played out in transaction volume, which decreased 1.0% from May but still showed a 1.9% increase over June 2024.
The Food & Beverage Retail sector was the only retail category to see monthly growth (+0.9% MoM), indicating that consumers are still spending on essentials. On a year-over-year basis, the retail sector painted a more optimistic picture, with Furniture, Electronics and Appliances (+4.5%), Food & Beverage Retail (+4.1%), and Sporting Goods (+3.4%) all demonstrating continued strength. These figures suggest consumers are selectively investing in home, food, and leisure categories.
Regional Trends: Small States Show Outsized Gains
In a continuation of recent patterns, smaller states led the way in small business sales growth in June. Out of 50 states, only 10 posted month-over-month gains, but the increases were significant in places like Alaska (+6.1%), North Dakota (+5.8%), and Alabama (+3.5%). Conversely, some of the country’s largest economies—including California (-2.3%), New York (-4.2%), and Texas (-1.2%)—experienced notable slowdowns.
Among major metropolitan areas, San Francisco (+8.5%) and Atlanta (+13.6%) stood out for strong year-over-year growth. However, month-over-month growth was limited, with only Boston (+1.2%) posting an increase. These results underscore how regional economic dynamics continue to influence the performance of small businesses in varied ways, with less populous areas sometimes providing unexpected strength.