Fiserv’s July index shows spending up 1.6% year over year, even as fewer customers are walking through the door
U.S. small businesses posted their second-strongest month of sales growth in 2026, according to the Fiserv Small Business Index released this week, with sales up 1.6% year over year in July. But the number that matters more than the headline figure is what’s driving it: consumers spending more per visit while showing up less often.
The seasonally adjusted Index held steady at 145 in July, unchanged from June. Average ticket size rose 3.2% year over year, more than offsetting a 1.6% year-over-year decline in transactions. That drop in foot traffic marked the ninth consecutive month of decline, even as transaction volume held essentially flat month over month.
“July’s results reinforce a consistent theme in 2026: small businesses are still growing, but growth is increasingly dependent on higher tickets rather than stronger traffic,” said Prasanna Dhore, Chief Data Officer at Fiserv. He added that consumers remain engaged in select retail categories, but continued pressure in restaurants and a shift toward value-oriented spending suggest households are being more selective about where and how they spend.
That selectivity shows up clearly at the sector level. Restaurants remained under the most pressure: Food Services and Drinking Places sales slipped 0.8% year over year, dragged down by a 5.3% transaction decline at limited-service chains, even as full-service restaurants held roughly steady. Retail told a different story. Total retail sales rose 1.9% year over year on genuine traffic growth, with sporting goods and hobby retailers (+5.6%), health and personal care (+3.6%), and clothing (+2.1%) all posting solid gains. Grocery spending grew modestly on more frequent, lower-value trips, while gas station sales stayed elevated on higher per-gallon prices even as volumes eased slightly month over month.
The broader pattern, essentials outpacing discretionary spending, and goods outperforming services, points to a consumer who is still spending, but doing so more deliberately. For the roughly two million small businesses the Index tracks, that means growth is available in 2026, but increasingly, it has to be earned per customer rather than assumed from foot traffic alone.
The Fiserv Small Business Index is built from point-of-sale transaction data, including card, cash, and check activity, across approximately 2 million U.S. small businesses, rather than survey or sentiment data.